Win-Back & Reactivation Campaigns: Defining Lapsed Customers, Reactivation Rates, Offer Economics, Incrementality & Second-Life Value

What you'll build

What you will be able to do

Each lab ends with a concrete result that you build yourself and the checker confirms, cell by cell.

• Turn last-order dates into days since the last order, look up a lapse threshold per category, label each customer Active or Lapsed and count the lapsed pool per category.
• Follow 10,000 customers month by month after their last order, calculate the monthly return rate and the cumulative share that came back, find the point of no return and draw the decay curve.
• Cross recency bands with a past-value split in a COUNTIFS grid, label each lapsed customer with a segment and size the spend of the priority segment.
• Price four win-back offers: the discount in € per reactivated order, the margin left after it, the reactivation rate needed to cover the contact costs and the profit per 1,000 customers contacted.
• Compare treated and holdout groups to find how many reactivations the campaign really caused, what each incremental customer cost and how much of the discount went to customers who would have come back anyway.
• Compare email, postal mail, paid social reminders and text messages by cost per incremental reactivation, cost the quarter's contact plan with SUMPRODUCT, pool the blended cost and flag a plan line that exceeds the reachable pool.
• Model how many reactivated customers keep buying year by year with POWER, value their second life over five years, compare it with a new customer and turn it into the most you can pay per incremental reactivation.
• Turn the monthly pipeline of newly lapsed customers into contacts, incremental reactivations, cost and second-life value, total the half-year with the set-up cost, calculate the programme ROI and chart the pipeline.