Lapse Curves: Monthly Return Rates, the Cumulative Share Coming Back and the Point of No Return
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You follow 10,000 customers month by month after their last order, calculate the monthly return rate and the cumulative share that came back, find the point of no return and draw the decay curve.
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Lessons in this course
- Defining Lapsed Customers: Days Since the Last Order, a Threshold per Category and the Size of the Lapsed Pool Locked
- Lapse Curves: Monthly Return Rates, the Cumulative Share Coming Back and the Point of No Return Locked
- Segments for Win-Back: Recency Bands × Past Value with COUNTIFS, Segment Labels and the Priority Segment Locked
- Offer Economics: Discount Cost per Order, Margin After the Offer, Break-Even Reactivation Rate and Profit per 1,000 Contacts Locked
- Holdout Tests: Incremental Reactivation Rate, Incremental Customers, Cost per Incremental Customer and Paid-Anyway Share Locked
- Channel Mix: Cost per Incremental Reactivation by Channel, Plan Cost, Blended Cost and a Reach Check Locked
- Second-Life Value: Retention of Reactivated vs New Customers, a Simple Decay with POWER and the Maximum Win-Back Cost Locked
- Programme Plan & Dashboard: Monthly Lapsing Pipeline, Incremental Reactivations, Total Cost, ROI and a Chart Locked