Probability & Combinatorics for Decisions

What you'll build

What you will be able to do

Each lab ends with a concrete result that you build yourself and the checker confirms, cell by cell.

• Count favourable outcomes in the 36 rolls of two dice with COUNTIF, use the complement rule and the addition rule for a deck of cards.
• Count route orders with FACT, award rankings with PERMUT and team choices with COMBIN, then use the counts for a probability.
• Read conditional, reverse-conditional and joint probabilities from a table of 800 test rides and decide whether bike type and buying are independent.
• Compute how likely an alert is to be real for Kestrel's webshop fraud filter and for a health screening test, and count false alarms in a group of 10,000.
• Compare three projects by expected value and work out whether an e-bike theft policy pays on average.
• Build the defect distribution for a sample of 20 battery packs with BINOM.DIST and find how often a bad lot slips through the acceptance rule.
• Model Saturday walk-in repairs with POISSON.DIST, find how often the workshop is overloaded and what capacity covers 95% of hours.
• Judge frame tubes against their tolerance with z-scores, NORM.DIST and NORM.INV, then simulate ten weeks of demand from given random numbers.