Stage Probabilities: From Given Stage Probabilities to End Outcomes and Expected Spend
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You chain given stage probabilities into the chance of reaching each stage, split every stage into settled, lost and won endings and calculate the cost the funder can expect to spend.
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Lessons in this course
- The Case Budget: Costs by Stage, Commitment and Drawdowns Locked
- Stage Probabilities: From Given Stage Probabilities to End Outcomes and Expected Spend Locked
- Expected Recovery: Claim Value, Collection Haircuts and the Outcome Table Locked
- Funder Return Structures: Multiples, Percentages, the Greater-of Rule and Time Ratchets Locked
- The Proceeds Waterfall: Capital Back, Lawyer Uplift, Funder Profit and the Claimant Floor Locked
- Duration, IRR and MOIC: Same Case, Different Clocks Locked
- Adverse Costs and Cover: Loser-Pays Exposure, Deferred and Upfront Premiums Locked
- Capstone – A Portfolio of 12 Cases: Expected MOIC, Concentration, Loss Rate and Cross-Collateralisation Locked