Probability of Running Out: Return Scenarios & a Weighted Shortfall
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You test the drawdown plan against six return scenarios with probabilities: the balance left at 90 in each, which ones run dry, the probability of running out and the probability-weighted balance.
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Lessons in this course
- Present Value of a Level Annuity at Different Discount Rates Locked
- The Annuity's Implied Return: RATE by Age at Death Locked
- Break-Even Age: When Cumulative Payments Overtake the Lump Sum Locked
- Mortality-Weighted Value: Survival Probabilities × Payments Locked
- Inflation: COLA vs Fixed Annuity in Real Dollars Locked
- Drawdown from the Lump Sum: Balance Path, Run-Out Age & a Chart Locked
- Probability of Running Out: Return Scenarios & a Weighted Shortfall Locked
- Joint & Survivor Options: Reduction %, Survivor Factors & Household Value Locked