The Base-Rate Fallacy: A 99% Test That Is Usually Wrong
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You screen 100,000 people for a rare condition with a "99% accurate" test, count true and false positives as natural frequencies and see why most positives are false, and what a second test changes.
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Lessons in this course
- Monty Hall: Enumerate Every Case, Then Stay or Switch Locked
- The Birthday Paradox: A PRODUCT Table and Its S-Curve Locked
- Simpson's Paradox: Better in Every Group, Worse Overall Locked
- The Base-Rate Fallacy: A 99% Test That Is Usually Wrong Locked
- The Gambler's Fallacy: Independence and How Common Streaks Really Are Locked
- Bertrand's Box & the Boy-or-Girl Paradox: Conditioning by Counting Locked
- The St. Petersburg Paradox: Infinite Expected Value, Tiny Price Locked
- Regression to the Mean: Why the Best Scores Drop on a Retest Locked