Market Sizing & Launch Forecasts: TAM, SAM, SOM, Adoption Curves & Bottom-Up Sales Plans

What you'll build

What you will be able to do

Each lab ends with a concrete result that you build yourself and the checker confirms, cell by cell.

• Build the total addressable market from four customer segments and four regions with SUMPRODUCT, and see why the share of dollars differs from the share of units.
• Cut the TAM down to the serviceable market with scope flags and channel reach, grow it year by year and apply a capture-share ramp to get the obtainable market.
• Build a year-1 B2B plan from target accounts, deal sizes, win rates and ramp factors, compare it with the top-down SOM and work out how much revenue is missing to close the gap.
• Model household adoption as a logistic S-curve with a ceiling, a steepness and a midpoint year, convert shares into households, label each year with an adopter group and chart the curve.
• Forecast cumulative and new first-time buyers with the Bass diffusion model, find the theoretical peak time and the peak year, and chart the wave of new adopters.
• Turn target households into triers, repeat buyers and units for three launch years by chaining funnel percentages, and add up the three-year unit plan in one formula.
• Turn the unit plan into low, base and high revenue scenarios with price erosion and a competitor entering the market, add up five years in one formula and chart the three paths.
• Calculate the year-3 contribution, the profit range each input causes over its own plausible swing, find the input that matters most and draw the tornado as a sorted bar chart.