Diffusion Model: Innovation p, Imitation q and the Peak Year
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You forecast cumulative and new first-time buyers with the Bass diffusion model, find the theoretical peak time and the peak year, and chart the wave of new adopters.
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Lessons in this course
- Segment-Based TAM: Units × Spend by Segment and Region Locked
- SAM & SOM: Reachable Market, Capture Share and a Five-Year Ramp Locked
- Bottom-Up Sales Plan: Accounts × Deal × Win Rate × Ramp Locked
- S-Curve Adoption: Logistic Share, Households and Adopter Groups Locked
- Diffusion Model: Innovation p, Imitation q and the Peak Year Locked
- Launch Funnel: Awareness, Consideration, Trial & Repeat Units Locked
- Revenue Scenarios: Price Erosion, Competitor Entry, Low–Base–High Locked
- Sensitivity Tornado: Which Assumption Moves the Forecast Most? Locked