Recurrence Intervals & the Chance of at Least One Event
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You turn the regional Gutenberg–Richter values into annual rates and recurrence intervals, calculate the Poisson chance of at least one event in 50 years, and derive the classic 475-year return period.
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Lessons in this course
- Moment Magnitude: From Fault Size and Slip to Mw Locked
- Magnitude & Energy: Why +1 Means 32 Times More Locked
- P and S Waves: Travel Times & Distance from the S−P Interval Locked
- Locating the Epicentre: Three Stations & a Grid Search Locked
- Gutenberg–Richter: Fitting log N = a − bM with SLOPE Locked
- Recurrence Intervals & the Chance of at Least One Event Locked
- Aftershock Decay: Omori's Law Locked
- Shaking Intensity vs Distance (Illustrative Attenuation) Locked