Cumulative Probability of Success by Phase
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You chain the phase-transition probabilities of CRV-117 into a cumulative probability of success and the likelihood of approval.
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Lessons in this course
- Cumulative Probability of Success by Phase Locked
- Development Cost Schedule by Phase and Year Locked
- Peak Sales Build: Patients × Share × Price × Compliance Locked
- Sales Ramp & the Loss-of-Exclusivity Cliff Locked
- Unrisked NPV: Discounting the Success Case Locked
- Risk-Adjusted NPV: Every Cash Flow × the Probability of Getting There Locked
- Licensing Deals: Upfront, Milestones, Royalties & Both Sides' rNPV Locked
- Pipeline Portfolio & Sensitivity of the rNPV Locked