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Healthcare Business Advanced

Pharma & Biotech Valuation: Risk-Adjusted NPV, Phase Probabilities & Peak Sales

Value a fictional drug candidate like a biotech analyst: chain phase probabilities, schedule development costs, build peak sales and the LOE curve, then go from unrisked NPV to rNPV, licensing deals and a pipeline, in 8 graded labs.

8 lessons 8 labs 1.9 h Certificate

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  • 14-day money-back guarantee
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What you'll build

What you will be able to do

Each lab ends with a concrete result that you build yourself and the checker confirms, cell by cell.

  • Chain the phase-transition probabilities of CRV-117 into a cumulative probability of success and the likelihood of approval.
  • Spread CRV-117's phase budgets over the years 2027 to 2032 with one copyable IF formula, then total and accumulate the spend.
  • Build CRV-117's peak sales bottom-up from the patient funnel, the net price and compliance.
  • Turn peak sales into a 14-year sales curve for CRV-117: ramp-up, plateau, loss of exclusivity, and chart it.
  • Build CRV-117's cash flows if everything succeeds and discount them to an unrisked NPV.
  • Attach to every year of CRV-117's cash flows the probability that the drug is still alive, and compare the rNPV with the unrisked NPV.
  • Value a licensing deal for CRV-117 from both sides: what Corvane receives and what the partner keeps.
  • Value Corvane Therapeutics's four-candidate pipeline, chart each asset's rNPV and test how CRV-117's value moves with peak sales and LOA.

About this course

Most drug candidates never reach patients, which makes standard NPV misleading for biotech. This course builds a risk-adjusted valuation instead. You calculate cumulative probability of success across clinical phases and lay out development costs by phase and year. Peak sales are built from patients, market share, price and compliance, then ramped up and cut at loss of exclusivity. You discount the success case to an unrisked NPV, then weight every cash flow by the probability of reaching it to get rNPV. Licensing labs value upfront payments, milestones and royalties from both the licensor's and licensee's side, and the final lab combines a pipeline portfolio with sensitivity analysis. For biotech analysts, business development teams and life-science investors.

Curriculum

Course content

8 lessons · 8 labs · 1.9 h · final exam

  1. Cumulative Probability of Success by PhaseLab12 min4 checked tasks
    Unlocked when you buy the course
  2. Development Cost Schedule by Phase and YearLab14 min4 checked tasks
    Unlocked when you buy the course
  3. Peak Sales Build: Patients × Share × Price × ComplianceLab13 min4 checked tasks
    Unlocked when you buy the course
  4. Sales Ramp & the Loss-of-Exclusivity CliffLab14 min4 checked tasks
    Unlocked when you buy the course
  5. Unrisked NPV: Discounting the Success CaseLab15 min4 checked tasks
    Unlocked when you buy the course
  6. Risk-Adjusted NPV: Every Cash Flow × the Probability of Getting ThereLab16 min4 checked tasks
    Unlocked when you buy the course
  7. Licensing Deals: Upfront, Milestones, Royalties & Both Sides' rNPVLab16 min4 checked tasks
    Unlocked when you buy the course
  8. Pipeline Portfolio & Sensitivity of the rNPVLab15 min4 checked tasks
    Unlocked when you buy the course
  9. Final exam12 questions, 75% to pass, unlimited retries.

Certificate

Finish with a certificate you can verify

Complete every lesson and pass the final exam to receive a certificate of completion for this course, with a unique credential ID and a public verification page.

  • Names the course, your score and the date of issue
  • A verification link for your CV or LinkedIn profile
  • 12 questions, 75% to pass, unlimited retries.

A Tutorvo certificate confirms that you completed a course. It is not an official or professional qualification.

Illustration. Your certificate shows your own name, course and credential ID.

Before you buy

Questions about this course

Is this a subscription?

No. You pay $9.99 once for this course. There is no subscription and nothing renews automatically. Prices are in US dollars; taxes may be added where required.

What exactly do I get?

All lessons and labs of this course, the final exam and the certificate, including later updates to the course, for as long as Tutorvo offers it. Access is personal and tied to your account.

Can I get a refund?

Yes. If you are not satisfied, email hello@tutorvo.com within 14 days of buying and we refund the course in full via Stripe. The guarantee does not apply once a certificate for the course has been issued to you, or where there are signs of abuse.

When can I start?

Right after payment. Access starts immediately at your request; for consumers in the EU/EEA the statutory right of withdrawal therefore ends once access has begun, while our 14-day money-back guarantee applies regardless.

Do I need Excel or other software?

No. The labs run in a spreadsheet inside your browser on a laptop, tablet or phone. Function names and syntax follow Excel.

Is the certificate an official qualification?

No. It confirms that you completed all lessons of the course and passed its final exam. It is not an official, state-recognised or professional qualification. The name is taken from your profile when the certificate is issued.

Full details are in our Terms · hello@tutorvo.com

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