Subscription Box Economics: Box COGS, Churn by Cohort, CAC Payback & Skip Rates

What you'll build

What you will be able to do

Each lab ends with a concrete result that you build yourself and the checker confirms, cell by cell.

• Build the cost stack of one Kettlecrate box and find what each box contributes, and how many boxes cover the monthly fixed costs.
• Value the plan mix: cash billed upfront per plan, monthly revenue, each plan's share and the weighted average revenue per box.
• Turn six sign-up cohorts into a retention triangle, measure churn in each box month and chain it into one survival curve.
• Measure how many subscribers skip or pause each month, what that costs in revenue, and flag the months above the alert level.
• Calculate the customer acquisition cost per channel and blended, then how many boxes it takes to earn it back, first simply and then with churn.
• Value a subscriber on each plan as the present value of future box contributions, with churn and a discount rate, and compare it with CAC.
• Forecast how many boxes ship next month and turn that into purchase orders per item, in full cases and never below zero.
• Compare three first-box offers over a 12-box horizon: what the discount costs, how retention changes and which offer leaves the most profit after acquisition.