Bayesian A/B Test: The Probability That B Beats A
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You turn the checkout test (A: 120 of 2,500, B: 150 of 2,500) into two Beta posteriors and estimate P(B > A), once with the normal approximation and once by counting 30 posterior draws.
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Lessons in this course
- Bayes' Theorem: A Diagnostic Test and the Base Rate Locked
- Updating Step by Step: Several Pieces of Evidence Locked
- Grid Approximation: Prior × Likelihood ÷ Sum Locked
- Beta-Binomial: The Conjugate Update and a Credible Interval Locked
- Weak vs Strong Priors: How Much Does the Prior Matter? Locked
- Bayesian A/B Test: The Probability That B Beats A Locked
- Expected Loss: A Decision Rule for Shipping B Locked
- Bayesian vs Frequentist: Same Data, Different Questions Locked