Grid Approximation: Prior × Likelihood ÷ Sum
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You turn a team guess about the add-on purchase rate into a posterior on a grid of 10 rates, using BINOM.DIST as the likelihood, and read the posterior mean, mode and P(p ≥ 20%).
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Lessons in this course
- Bayes' Theorem: A Diagnostic Test and the Base Rate Locked
- Updating Step by Step: Several Pieces of Evidence Locked
- Grid Approximation: Prior × Likelihood ÷ Sum Locked
- Beta-Binomial: The Conjugate Update and a Credible Interval Locked
- Weak vs Strong Priors: How Much Does the Prior Matter? Locked
- Bayesian A/B Test: The Probability That B Beats A Locked
- Expected Loss: A Decision Rule for Shipping B Locked
- Bayesian vs Frequentist: Same Data, Different Questions Locked