Home advantage & match prediction with Poisson goals
This lesson is part of the course
In this lesson
You estimate how many goals Northbridge and Kestrel should score, turn that into goal probabilities with POISSON.DIST and add them up to win, draw and loss probabilities.
Buy the course once for $9.99 to unlock every lesson and lab, the final exam and the certificate – lifetime access, no subscription.
Lessons in this course
- League table from match results: points, goal difference & tiebreaks Locked
- Per-90 and per-game stats: fair comparisons Locked
- Shooting efficiency: eFG% and true shooting % (basketball) Locked
- Expected goals (xG): sums, over- and under-performance Locked
- Elo ratings: expected score, K-factor & rating update Locked
- Pythagorean expectation: win % from points for and against Locked
- Player comparison: z-scores & a weighted composite score Locked
- Home advantage & match prediction with Poisson goals Locked